Actually not doing stuff there’s already a glut of is not a terribly bad heuristic: for example, if in your area there are 1000 guitarist and 100 drummers it’s much easier for you to get into a band if you play the drums than if you play the guitar.
Ah, but that’s assuming that their goal is “get into a band,” rather than “attain a new and interesting hobby.”
Actually not doing stuff there’s already a glut of is not a terribly bad heuristic: for example, if in your area there are 1000 guitarist and 100 drummers it’s much easier for you to get into a band if you play the drums than if you play the guitar.
Ah, but that’s assuming that their goal is “get into a band,” rather than “attain a new and interesting hobby.”