The biggest hurdle to the adoption of such a system is probably the fact that most current traders probably do not have enough programming skill to trade in such a system without incurring significant costs by starting lots of bots and probably do not have enough programming skill to extract more than a small fraction of the information revealed by such a system. One way to get over that hurdle is to target your new market at programmers and allied occupations (like project managers). Programmers and allied occupations could use an effective prediction market to help them, e.g., predict completion dates of their programming projects.
I have written more on how prediction markets might serve programmers and allied occupations.
It would be much better of course if there was some math behind your assertion that a programmatic market is more informative than current market designs.
Whether the market is more informative depends on the type of information people put in the programs. The price may not be better, but the price on its own is not useful to me, if I want to be a trader and put in my information. See my updated intro.
Intriguing idea, whpearson.
The biggest hurdle to the adoption of such a system is probably the fact that most current traders probably do not have enough programming skill to trade in such a system without incurring significant costs by starting lots of bots and probably do not have enough programming skill to extract more than a small fraction of the information revealed by such a system. One way to get over that hurdle is to target your new market at programmers and allied occupations (like project managers). Programmers and allied occupations could use an effective prediction market to help them, e.g., predict completion dates of their programming projects. I have written more on how prediction markets might serve programmers and allied occupations.
It would be much better of course if there was some math behind your assertion that a programmatic market is more informative than current market designs.
Whether the market is more informative depends on the type of information people put in the programs. The price may not be better, but the price on its own is not useful to me, if I want to be a trader and put in my information. See my updated intro.
I liked it better before.