This is an interesting idea, but I’m unsure that it solves more problems than it creates and I don’t think its really fair to frame this as a problem with the prediction markets as news view.
If using a programmatic prediction market requires one to share private knowledge about the world which continues to be valuable, then people will refuse to use it, and will try to profit on the information some other way which does not force them to share their private knowledge.
Furthermore, its not as if this is the only way to answer the type of question you ask—“why did the price of oil futures fall?”
This is an interesting idea, but I’m unsure that it solves more problems than it creates and I don’t think its really fair to frame this as a problem with the prediction markets as news view.
If using a programmatic prediction market requires one to share private knowledge about the world which continues to be valuable, then people will refuse to use it, and will try to profit on the information some other way which does not force them to share their private knowledge.
Furthermore, its not as if this is the only way to answer the type of question you ask—“why did the price of oil futures fall?”