The reason you can’t profit on your possibly newly aquired knowledge of the local lake is that you don’t know whether the other traders did or did not already include said lake in their calculations.
However, long term traders know which information they did factor in and would probably be interested in buying the information from you, iff it is new information to them. So, they should in theory be willing to pay you a price for your piece of information, even if you don’t have the global view of the market.
And I think there is a way for you to profit, given that the transactions on the market are essentially cost-less. Namely, bet on whatever your information predicts, totally irrespective of what the market looks like, then publish your information to all traders. Wait for the market to settle at the new value (now guaranteed to include you info), zero out your positions.
If your information was already known to all traders, well, you have to zero your positions without any gain, and if transaction costs are zero, also without loss. (Random market fluctuations should even out).
The reason you can’t profit on your possibly newly aquired knowledge of the local lake is that you don’t know whether the other traders did or did not already include said lake in their calculations.
However, long term traders know which information they did factor in and would probably be interested in buying the information from you, iff it is new information to them. So, they should in theory be willing to pay you a price for your piece of information, even if you don’t have the global view of the market.
And I think there is a way for you to profit, given that the transactions on the market are essentially cost-less. Namely, bet on whatever your information predicts, totally irrespective of what the market looks like, then publish your information to all traders. Wait for the market to settle at the new value (now guaranteed to include you info), zero out your positions.
If your information was already known to all traders, well, you have to zero your positions without any gain, and if transaction costs are zero, also without loss. (Random market fluctuations should even out).