I agree that this would generate better predictions than markets as currently envisioned, but the cost of allocating skilled programmers to this sort of task drastically exceeds the value of the predictions generated, even if those predictions are perfect.
I agree that this would generate better predictions than markets as currently envisioned, but the cost of allocating skilled programmers to this sort of task drastically exceeds the value of the predictions generated, even if those predictions are perfect.
This suggests an interesting area of research, at least: Make prediction-programming as accessible as possible.