This post looks to me like it’s not living up to any epistemic virtues championed by the rationality community.
When we talk about predictions in rationality we are talking about statements that come with the likelihood of whether or not a future event happens.
You lay out a thesis, but you don’t make an argument for why I should believe the thesis. You are just saying what you believe to be true and not why you believe it.
The fact that you believe that someone would run a clinical trial because you wrote the post also suggests that you are a bit delusional about how things work.
Oh, come on. If the rationality community disapproved of Einstein predicting the transit of Mercury, that’s an L for the rationality community, not for Einstein.
I have offered to say why I believe it to be true, as soon as I can get clearance from my company to publish capabilities relevant theoretical neuroscience work.
Whether someone has epistemic virtue depends on whether they use the epistemic tools available to them. We made a lot of progress in epistemics in the last hundred years.
Clinical trials are highly regulated. The median cost of a clinical trial is on the order of US$19 million. Do you have that kind of money available to run a clinical trial?
I have the courage to commit an act of civil disobedience in which I ask people caring for Alzheimer’s patients to request a Zoloft and/or Trazodone prescription for their loved ones, and then track the results.
Do you think I lack the persistence and capital to organize something of that nature? Why or why not?
That setup doesn’t give you a randomized control trial which is what’s usually meant with the term clinical trial.
The system has a lot of incentives against doctors cooperating with illegal clinical trials. I don’t think there’s a notable example of anyone who pulled off a comparable trial which suggests that it’s hard.
And I also have the courage to apply to Y Combinator to start either a 501c3 or a for-profit company to actually perform this trial through legal, official channels. Do you think that I will be denied entry into their program with such a noble goal and the collaboration of a domain expert?
This comment continues to annoy me. I composed a whole irrational response in my mind where I would make credible threats to burn significant parts of the capabilities commons every time someone called me delusional on LessWrong.
But that’s probably not a reasonable way to live my life, so this response is not that response.
I get that history is written by the victors. I get that what is accepted by consensus reality is dictated by the existing power structures. The fact that you would presume to explain these things to the author of Ethicophysics I and Ethicophysics II simply demonstrates that you have either failed to read these documents, failed to understand what they are saying, or are simply too pigheaded for your own or anyone else’s good.
I do not appreciate being called delusional, and I must ask you never to use that word in reference to me again (at least not to my face). You have my permission to use the synonyms “irrational” (for claims that you believe have poor Bayesian hygiene) or “unreasonable” (for claims or suggestions that you think do not lead to Pareto-optimal outcomes consistent with morality as it is commonly understood).
If you do continue to be condescending to me, then my response is always going to be some mostly-polite but quite direct explanation of the current location of your foot relative to the current location of your oral cavity.
And history will not be kind to both sides of any discussion like that. I offer you a choice: continue to pooh-pooh my proposed treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, and accept some wager at my proposed odds on the probable outcome of this trial when I organize it out of my own free time and my own funds, or (and I say this as politely as I know how) find some more reasonable use of the precious gift of your time on Earth than to comment on my work, my character, or the inside of my head.
This post looks to me like it’s not living up to any epistemic virtues championed by the rationality community.
When we talk about predictions in rationality we are talking about statements that come with the likelihood of whether or not a future event happens.
You lay out a thesis, but you don’t make an argument for why I should believe the thesis. You are just saying what you believe to be true and not why you believe it.
The fact that you believe that someone would run a clinical trial because you wrote the post also suggests that you are a bit delusional about how things work.
Oh, come on. If the rationality community disapproved of Einstein predicting the transit of Mercury, that’s an L for the rationality community, not for Einstein.
I have offered to say why I believe it to be true, as soon as I can get clearance from my company to publish capabilities relevant theoretical neuroscience work.
Whether someone has epistemic virtue depends on whether they use the epistemic tools available to them. We made a lot of progress in epistemics in the last hundred years.
Well then, I submit that courage is a virtue, when tempered with the wisdom not to pick fights you do not plan to finish.
And I’m happy to code up the smartphone app and run the clinical trial from my own funds. My uncle is starting to have memory trouble, I believe.
Clinical trials are highly regulated. The median cost of a clinical trial is on the order of US$19 million. Do you have that kind of money available to run a clinical trial?
I have the courage to commit an act of civil disobedience in which I ask people caring for Alzheimer’s patients to request a Zoloft and/or Trazodone prescription for their loved ones, and then track the results.
Do you think I lack the persistence and capital to organize something of that nature? Why or why not?
That setup doesn’t give you a randomized control trial which is what’s usually meant with the term clinical trial.
The system has a lot of incentives against doctors cooperating with illegal clinical trials. I don’t think there’s a notable example of anyone who pulled off a comparable trial which suggests that it’s hard.
And I also have the courage to apply to Y Combinator to start either a 501c3 or a for-profit company to actually perform this trial through legal, official channels. Do you think that I will be denied entry into their program with such a noble goal and the collaboration of a domain expert?
This comment continues to annoy me. I composed a whole irrational response in my mind where I would make credible threats to burn significant parts of the capabilities commons every time someone called me delusional on LessWrong.
But that’s probably not a reasonable way to live my life, so this response is not that response.
I get that history is written by the victors. I get that what is accepted by consensus reality is dictated by the existing power structures. The fact that you would presume to explain these things to the author of Ethicophysics I and Ethicophysics II simply demonstrates that you have either failed to read these documents, failed to understand what they are saying, or are simply too pigheaded for your own or anyone else’s good.
I do not appreciate being called delusional, and I must ask you never to use that word in reference to me again (at least not to my face). You have my permission to use the synonyms “irrational” (for claims that you believe have poor Bayesian hygiene) or “unreasonable” (for claims or suggestions that you think do not lead to Pareto-optimal outcomes consistent with morality as it is commonly understood).
If you do continue to be condescending to me, then my response is always going to be some mostly-polite but quite direct explanation of the current location of your foot relative to the current location of your oral cavity.
And history will not be kind to both sides of any discussion like that. I offer you a choice: continue to pooh-pooh my proposed treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, and accept some wager at my proposed odds on the probable outcome of this trial when I organize it out of my own free time and my own funds, or (and I say this as politely as I know how) find some more reasonable use of the precious gift of your time on Earth than to comment on my work, my character, or the inside of my head.