By “full detail” I meant a prior over all possible states, not just over the next observation. The most disturbing prior I think is one that makes all observations independent of each other. All other priors allow some predictions of the future from the past—and given any particular prior we naturally find a way to call its favored states “simpler.” I doubt the word “simple” has a meaning pinned down independently of that.
By “full detail” I meant a prior over all possible states, not just over the next observation. The most disturbing prior I think is one that makes all observations independent of each other. All other priors allow some predictions of the future from the past—and given any particular prior we naturally find a way to call its favored states “simpler.” I doubt the word “simple” has a meaning pinned down independently of that.