The possible mind, that assumes that things are more likely to work if they have never worked before, can in all honesty continue to use this prior if it has never worked before. But this is only a self-sustaining method if it continues not to work.
Let us introduce our hypothetical poor-prior, rationalist observer to a rigged game of chance; let us say, a roulette wheel. (For simplicity, let’s call him Jim). We allow Jim to inspect an (unrigged) roulette wheel beforehand. We ask him to place a bet, on any number of his choice; once he places his bet, we use our rigged roulette wheel to ensure that he wins and continues to win, for any number of future guesses.
Now, from Jim’s point of view, whatever line of reasoning he is using to find the correct number to bet on, it is working. He’ll presumably select a different number every time; it continues to work. Thus, the idea that a theory that work now is less likely to work in the future is working… and thus is less likely to work in the future. Wouldn’t this success cause him to eventually reject his prior?
A question.
The possible mind, that assumes that things are more likely to work if they have never worked before, can in all honesty continue to use this prior if it has never worked before. But this is only a self-sustaining method if it continues not to work.
Let us introduce our hypothetical poor-prior, rationalist observer to a rigged game of chance; let us say, a roulette wheel. (For simplicity, let’s call him Jim). We allow Jim to inspect an (unrigged) roulette wheel beforehand. We ask him to place a bet, on any number of his choice; once he places his bet, we use our rigged roulette wheel to ensure that he wins and continues to win, for any number of future guesses.
Now, from Jim’s point of view, whatever line of reasoning he is using to find the correct number to bet on, it is working. He’ll presumably select a different number every time; it continues to work. Thus, the idea that a theory that work now is less likely to work in the future is working… and thus is less likely to work in the future. Wouldn’t this success cause him to eventually reject his prior?