But for now… what’s the alternative to saying, “I’m going to believe that the future will be like the past on the most stable level of organization I can identify, because that’s previously worked better for me than any other algorithm I’ve tried”?
Is it saying, “I’m going to believe that the future will not be like the past, because that algorithm has always failed before”?
To me, this is the point: “what’s my alternative?”
A principle I got from a Stephen Donaldson novel applies to “the future will be like the past”. The guy needed to find a bit of sabotage in a computer system. He had no expertise in software—or hardware, for that matter. But he needed to find the problem, or he would be dead.
The character got the principle he needed from bridge. In bridge, sometimes you’re screwed unless your partner has the card you need him to have. So the play is to assume your partner has the card, and play accordingly, because if he doesn’t, you’re screwed anyway.
Assume you can win. Assume that everything necessary for you to win is true. If it isn’t, you’re screwed anyway.
If the future isn’t like the past, how am I to know what ideas to rely on to take effective action? If I can’t say “it worked before, so it will likely work tomorrow”, it seems to me that I am screwed.
Should I believe that the future will be like the past, except on Tuesdays? Wednesdays? Except when it conflicts with statements in an arbitrarily selected book? From an arbitrarily selected person? From the first person I saw after I woke up 2343 days ago?
But if the future won’t be like the past, I don’t see any grounds for picking a solution, or the means for picking one. And even if one of these solutions works now, there wouldn’t be any reason to think it would work later. In short, I’d be screwed. So I may as well believe the future will be like the past.
Assume winning is possible. I don’t see how it is possible without the future being like the past, so I’m going to assume it will be.
To me, this is the point: “what’s my alternative?”
A principle I got from a Stephen Donaldson novel applies to “the future will be like the past”. The guy needed to find a bit of sabotage in a computer system. He had no expertise in software—or hardware, for that matter. But he needed to find the problem, or he would be dead.
The character got the principle he needed from bridge. In bridge, sometimes you’re screwed unless your partner has the card you need him to have. So the play is to assume your partner has the card, and play accordingly, because if he doesn’t, you’re screwed anyway.
Assume you can win. Assume that everything necessary for you to win is true. If it isn’t, you’re screwed anyway.
If the future isn’t like the past, how am I to know what ideas to rely on to take effective action? If I can’t say “it worked before, so it will likely work tomorrow”, it seems to me that I am screwed.
Should I believe that the future will be like the past, except on Tuesdays? Wednesdays? Except when it conflicts with statements in an arbitrarily selected book? From an arbitrarily selected person? From the first person I saw after I woke up 2343 days ago?
But if the future won’t be like the past, I don’t see any grounds for picking a solution, or the means for picking one. And even if one of these solutions works now, there wouldn’t be any reason to think it would work later. In short, I’d be screwed. So I may as well believe the future will be like the past.
Assume winning is possible. I don’t see how it is possible without the future being like the past, so I’m going to assume it will be.