alexey comments on Only Fools Avoid Hindsight Bias

[alexey]

But you aren’t asked about $E\left(P\right(e\left)\right)$ (your current estimate of your prior). If you want to put it in this way, it would be $E_{t_1}\left(E_{t_0}\right(P\left(e\right)\left)\right)$, your current estimate of your previous estimate. And you do have exact knowledge what that estimate was.