First, 42 million includes children for who I doubt there is a public criteria we can agree on as proxy for intelligence. Second, I’m not sure IQ > 130 is .13%. Wikipedia suggests 1%.
Since those cut in opposite directions, let’s pretend they wash out. I am comfortable asserting there are more than 60k black folks in the set of:
senior military officers (colonel or greater)
highly successful national public intellectuals (eg Powell, Coates, Rice)
highly successful lawyers (Clarence Thomas is top 1% of lawyers)
highly successful MDs & research PhDs (eg Neil DeGrasse Tyson).
highly successful MDs & research PhDs (eg Neil DeGrasse Tyson).
As discussed elsewhere in this thread, Neil DeGrasse Tyson is “media science personality” not a successful researcher.
highly successful technocrats (mayors / police chiefs / school superintendent in large metro areas)
It doesn’t take that much intelligence to be elected Mayor. Especially if your black in a majority black city and the electorate votes on tribal solidarity. Hence a few infamous cases, like Mayor Marion Barry of DC.
From personal experience, there are lots of dumb lawyers. When I say highly successful, I mean roughly the level of screening that occurs through promotion from fresh-out-of-academy lieutenant to colonel.
For reference, Clarence Thomas easily clears the bar I’m trying to set, as did Johnny Cochran before he died. For entertainers, it seems clear that talent isn’t correlated with intelligence. But I think staying power requires some, so the ultra-successful are candidates.
For my broader argument, the categories I set out are potentially under-inclusive. There are lots of folks (like business people) not included in the categories I explicitly listed. We also haven’t included any children, on the grounds that we don’t agree on how to identify them.
it seems to me that I observe too many intelligent black folks for the mean to be in the 80s.
You, personally, observe too many? Is that statement true? Or do you merely expect to see many?
By convenience sampling in my personal life and observing public figures, I see a certain proportion of successful folk are black. Extrapolating from the proportion I see, 60k smart black folks is plausible. A much lower number is not plausible. What number of smart black folk should we expect to see if the mean were 85?
By convenience sampling in my personal life and observing public figures, I see a certain proportion of successful folk are black.
Public figures are what, a few dozen at most? So you rely on your personal sample and why in the world do you think that it’s representative?
Let’s take our favourite people—Alice and Bob. Alice lives in rural Alabama. She knows zero smart black people and extrapolates her personal sample to “all black folk are stupid”. Bob hails from Idaho and is an undergrad at Harvard -- 100% of black people he knows are very smart. He extrapolates his personal sample to “all black people are smart”. Why is your sample any better than Alice’s or Bob’s?
First, 42 million includes children for who I doubt there is a public criteria we can agree on as proxy for intelligence. Second, I’m not sure IQ > 130 is .13%. Wikipedia suggests 1%.
Since those cut in opposite directions, let’s pretend they wash out. I am comfortable asserting there are more than 60k black folks in the set of:
senior military officers (colonel or greater)
highly successful national public intellectuals (eg Powell, Coates, Rice)
highly successful lawyers (Clarence Thomas is top 1% of lawyers)
highly successful MDs & research PhDs (eg Neil DeGrasse Tyson).
highly successful media/entertainment personalities (Sean “Diddy” Combs, Oprah, etc).
highly successful technocrats (mayors / police chiefs / school superintendent in large metro areas)
As discussed elsewhere in this thread, Neil DeGrasse Tyson is “media science personality” not a successful researcher.
It doesn’t take that much intelligence to be elected Mayor. Especially if your black in a majority black city and the electorate votes on tribal solidarity. Hence a few infamous cases, like Mayor Marion Barry of DC.
The tail above three standard deviations for a normal distribution constitutes about 0.13% of the population.
Media/entertainment personalities can be oh so very dumb :-)
Otherwise, I am doubting your assertion. Do you have data?
From personal experience, there are lots of dumb lawyers. When I say highly successful, I mean roughly the level of screening that occurs through promotion from fresh-out-of-academy lieutenant to colonel.
For reference, Clarence Thomas easily clears the bar I’m trying to set, as did Johnny Cochran before he died. For entertainers, it seems clear that talent isn’t correlated with intelligence. But I think staying power requires some, so the ultra-successful are candidates.
For my broader argument, the categories I set out are potentially under-inclusive. There are lots of folks (like business people) not included in the categories I explicitly listed. We also haven’t included any children, on the grounds that we don’t agree on how to identify them.
Yeah, but it’s all hand-waving. I see this if I squint this way and you see that if you squint that way…
You originally said
You, personally, observe too many? Is that statement true? Or do you merely expect to see many?
By convenience sampling in my personal life and observing public figures, I see a certain proportion of successful folk are black. Extrapolating from the proportion I see, 60k smart black folks is plausible. A much lower number is not plausible. What number of smart black folk should we expect to see if the mean were 85?
Public figures are what, a few dozen at most? So you rely on your personal sample and why in the world do you think that it’s representative?
Let’s take our favourite people—Alice and Bob. Alice lives in rural Alabama. She knows zero smart black people and extrapolates her personal sample to “all black folk are stupid”. Bob hails from Idaho and is an undergrad at Harvard -- 100% of black people he knows are very smart. He extrapolates his personal sample to “all black people are smart”. Why is your sample any better than Alice’s or Bob’s?
Most IQ scales set the standard deviation at 15 points, not 10 points.
Yes, but we are starting from the mean which is 85 in this particular case.
Oh, I see. I was confused about what calculation you were doing; my apologies.