It is very interesting how weak the correlation is.
I like the use of the median, I can’t remember what I put on the survey but it could easily have been 1%, 0.1% or 0.01% depending on what I was thinking at that moment (this I consider a big downside of asking for a numerical probability instead of forcing a choice of terms like “unlikely” etc). Median should avoid that issue.
It is very interesting how weak the correlation is.
I like the use of the median, I can’t remember what I put on the survey but it could easily have been 1%, 0.1% or 0.01% depending on what I was thinking at that moment (this I consider a big downside of asking for a numerical probability instead of forcing a choice of terms like “unlikely” etc). Median should avoid that issue.