the goal of raising the sanity waterline is a good one, and rationalists should support the attempt
That does not follow at all.
The road to hell is in excellent condition and has no need of maintenance. Having a good goal in no way guarantees that what you do has net benefit and should be supported.
I agree! Having good intentions does not imply the action has net benefit. I tried to communicate in my post that I see this as a situation where failure isn’t likely to cause harm. Given that it isn’t likely to hurt, and it might help, I think it makes sense to support in general.
(To be clear: Just because something is a net positive (in expectation) clearly doesn’t imply one ought to invest resources in supporting it. Marginal utility is a thing, and I personally think there are other projects which have higher total expected-utility.)
a situation where failure isn’t likely to cause harm. Given that it isn’t likely to hurt, and it might help, I think it makes sense to support in general.
A failure isn’t likely to cause major harm, but by similar reasoning success is not likely to lead to major benefits as well. In simpler terms, InIn isn’t likely to have a large impact of any kind. Given this, I still see no reason why minor benefits are more likely than minor harm.
That does not follow at all.
The road to hell is in excellent condition and has no need of maintenance. Having a good goal in no way guarantees that what you do has net benefit and should be supported.
I agree! Having good intentions does not imply the action has net benefit. I tried to communicate in my post that I see this as a situation where failure isn’t likely to cause harm. Given that it isn’t likely to hurt, and it might help, I think it makes sense to support in general.
(To be clear: Just because something is a net positive (in expectation) clearly doesn’t imply one ought to invest resources in supporting it. Marginal utility is a thing, and I personally think there are other projects which have higher total expected-utility.)
A failure isn’t likely to cause major harm, but by similar reasoning success is not likely to lead to major benefits as well. In simpler terms, InIn isn’t likely to have a large impact of any kind. Given this, I still see no reason why minor benefits are more likely than minor harm.