I feel like the rally is one of those things that isn’t news in the important sense that it happening provides no new information. It is the sort of thing that I would expect to still see even if 95 percent of the Russian population actually desperately wants out of Ukraine, and hates the war, and also the sort of thing I’d expect to see if 95% of the population enthusiastically supports the war.
Though on considering this, I also realized that I don’t think all of the peace protests and arrests associated with them provide us any information either: Even if only five percent of the population seriously dislikes the war while the rest is supportive, you’d expect these protests and vice versa.
Though if most of the population was strongly opposed to the war, they would have probably gotten a lot bigger as a focal point. So the peace protests being are weak evidence that the regime is fairly strong. I think.
I feel like the rally is one of those things that isn’t news in the important sense that it happening provides no new information. It is the sort of thing that I would expect to still see even if 95 percent of the Russian population actually desperately wants out of Ukraine, and hates the war, and also the sort of thing I’d expect to see if 95% of the population enthusiastically supports the war.
Though on considering this, I also realized that I don’t think all of the peace protests and arrests associated with them provide us any information either: Even if only five percent of the population seriously dislikes the war while the rest is supportive, you’d expect these protests and vice versa.
Though if most of the population was strongly opposed to the war, they would have probably gotten a lot bigger as a focal point. So the peace protests being are weak evidence that the regime is fairly strong. I think.