Statistical estimates were ~50x more accurate than intelligence estimates in the cannonical example. When you include the strong and reasonable incentives for all participants to propagandize, it is nearly impossible to get accurate information about an ongoing conflict.
I think as rationalists, if we’re going to see more clearly than conventional wisdom, we need to find sources of information that have more fundamental basis. I don’t yet know what those would be.
For seeing through the fog of war, I’m reminded of the German Tank Problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
Statistical estimates were ~50x more accurate than intelligence estimates in the cannonical example. When you include the strong and reasonable incentives for all participants to propagandize, it is nearly impossible to get accurate information about an ongoing conflict.
I think as rationalists, if we’re going to see more clearly than conventional wisdom, we need to find sources of information that have more fundamental basis. I don’t yet know what those would be.
Or weight the sources appropriately given the evidence and update when we realize we’ve made a mistake?