I generally still am willing to compare like to like in such situations. Thus, if the level of crackdown stays static over some period, then one can expect that a change in approval represents a real change...
Agree on comparing like to like; disagree that “level of crackdown stays static” is sufficient. Expectations of future crackdowns would need to be static too—this seems unlikely (or at least hard to be confident in) in scenarios where approval has shifted.
EDIT: This seems like a case where coin-flip polls might tell us something useful, e.g.:
Flip a coin and keep the result to yourself, if it’s heads give an answer supportive of X, if it’s tails answer honestly.
Flip a coin..., if it’s heads give an answer against X, if it’s tails answer honestly.
Flip a coin..., if it’s heads reverse your true position, if it’s tails answer honestly.
...and here it’s important not to assume that everyone will follow the instructions (I’d expect many dictators to come out with close to 100% support on (3), which at least would tell you that people weren’t following the instructions).
Agree on comparing like to like; disagree that “level of crackdown stays static” is sufficient.
Expectations of future crackdowns would need to be static too—this seems unlikely (or at least hard to be confident in) in scenarios where approval has shifted.
EDIT:
This seems like a case where coin-flip polls might tell us something useful, e.g.:
Flip a coin and keep the result to yourself, if it’s heads give an answer supportive of X, if it’s tails answer honestly.
Flip a coin..., if it’s heads give an answer against X, if it’s tails answer honestly.
Flip a coin..., if it’s heads reverse your true position, if it’s tails answer honestly.
...and here it’s important not to assume that everyone will follow the instructions (I’d expect many dictators to come out with close to 100% support on (3), which at least would tell you that people weren’t following the instructions).