You are focusing on something that was incidental to the point I was actually making. That point, to make it more explicit, is: It is extremely common for university students to become “artisans” in the sense that seems relevant here. (That is: people doing a skilled job that it is possible to do well or badly and in which it is possible to do better by trying harder.) And it is extremely common for university students to intend to become “artisans” in the same sense.
Maybe Caplan is right that in fact it turns out that university education is, on balance, not helpful to people in doing their jobs. That can hardly be relevant to Lewis and his audience, back in 1944, decades before Bryan Caplan was even born.
[EDITED to add:] Also hardly relevant to me, doing my university studies decades before Caplan wrote The case against education. And only marginally relevant even to people at university now, most of whom have not read Caplan. What matters here is whether university students are likely to become “artisans”, either in reality or in their expectations or both.
(On the meta-point: I do not think it is so obvious that Caplan has proved his case, that anyone suggesting that university education might have value can just be presumed to be wrong unless they write a full-length rebuttal of Caplan. Beware the man of one study, etc. I also remark that AIUI what Caplan looks at is not education’s effectiveness in helping people do better jobs, but education’s effectiveness in helping people get paid more. One would hope that the two are closely related, and perhaps they are, but it seems relevant that one of Lewis’s key points in the talk we are discussing is that getting paid more is often determined by things that have little to do with how good a job you do.)
It is extremely common for university students to become “artisans” in the sense that seems relevant here. (That is: people doing a skilled job that it is possible to do well or badly and in which it is possible to do better by trying harder.) And it is extremely common for university students to intend to become “artisans” in the same sense.
Maybe Caplan is right that in fact it turns out that university education is, on balance, not helpful to people in doing their jobs. That can hardly be relevant to Lewis and his audience, back in 1944, decades before Bryan Caplan was even born.
I’d expect it to be significantly more applicable to the kinds of students Lewis was speaking to, than the average college student now, because college used to be more of an extreme elite endeavor, and fewer jobs used to require a nonspecific college degree. And in fact the aggregate behavior of university graduates between Lewis’s time and now caused us to live in a more credentialist society, with weaker property rights, where normal college students feel like they don’t have freedom of speech because it’s so important to be liked, and a large share of “business” is governed by the culture of Moral Mazes.
So you’re suggesting that the typical university student at a goodish UK university in 1944 would, after graduating, not be in the sort of job that involves skill and that it’s possible to do better or worse?
I am not in possession of the sort of statistics that might enable us to decide that question, but I have to say that that seems awfully improbable to me.
When Lewis gives a short list of possible post-university destinations it goes like this: ” …in whatever hospital, inn of court, diocese, school, business, or college you arrive after going down …”. So he’s thinking of doctors, lawyers, clergy, teachers, people-working-for-businesses, and universities. Obviously that second-last category is a large and varied one. Anyway: clearly medicine is a skilled profession in which one can learn and exercise greater or lesser skill. So is law. One could argue about the clergy, but I’m pretty sure Lewis felt that it was such a profession. I think it’s clear that education is such a profession, though maybe Caplan would disagree. Businesses, as I say, are many and varied, but at any rate the ones I’ve worked in have contained a lot of people doing difficult work that could be done well or badly. University education: same remarks apply as “lower” education.
Make of all that what you will. At any rate, it seems that the internal evidence of Lewis’s address suggests an audience to whom his advice is not in fact inapplicable. (So does the observation that Lewis was not an idiot.)
It is not clear to me how the allegedly-lamentable-in-consequences behaviour of university graduates between Lewis’s time and now is relevant. Are you saying that the bad state of society now proves that university graduates in 1944 did not work in jobs where one could do a difficult job well or badly? Surely not, but then what point are you making there?
I also remark that AIUI what Caplan looks at is not education’s effectiveness in helping people do better jobs, but education’s effectiveness in helping people get paid more. One would hope that the two are closely related, and perhaps they are, but it seems relevant that one of Lewis’s key points in the talk we are discussing is that getting paid more is often determined by things that have little to do with how good a job you do.)
I don’t understand what alternative hypothesis you’re advancing here. How can people afford to spend increasingly large amounts of time and money on schooling, which is mainly about teaching you to do a better job, if doing a better job doesn’t get you paid correspondingly more in expectation? If an alchemist’s wages aren’t sufficient to compensate for the training costs, shouldn’t we expect fewer alchemists in the next generation?
The alternative hypothesis I am advancing is that, in some (perhaps many) cases, people seek out education because they want to know certain things or because they want to be able to do certain things, rather than because they have made an estimate of the overall effect on their finances and decided that it’s positive.
For instance, my own case (not because it’s particularly important or particularly typical, but because I know more about it): I don’t remember ever seriously considering the possibility of not going to university, I don’t remember ever doing any net-financial-effect calculations, I mostly wanted to be an academic and knew academics weren’t particularly well paid, and I did the degree I did because I found the subject fascinating and thought I probably wanted to work in it after graduation.
This was quite a long time ago. I had more ability not to make financial calculations than (e.g.) the typical student in the present-day United States; the government of my country paid my fees, the institution I attended provided accommodation without extra charge, and my parents had no difficulty covering my living costs.
It may be that in the present-day US (and to a lesser extent the present-day UK, which is where I live) the cost of going to university—especially one of the pricier ones—is so high that no one other than the very rich would seriously consider going without doing a careful calculation of expected financial benefit. But it wasn’t true in the UK circa 1990, and neither was it true in the UK in 1944 when Lewis gave that address. And even now, if someone has the good fortune to be able to afford not to choose whether and where and how to go to university mostly on financial grounds, it seems to me that Caplan has not offered (nor tried to offer) very compelling evidence that universities don’t do a good job of teaching you things that might be interesting, useful, mind-expanding, etc., unless Lewis is all wrong about “inner rings”, because it could be that going to a good university and studying hard does make you better at doing your job, but being better at doing your job makes much less difference to your whole-career income than being better at getting into the inner rings.
(Or maybe going to a good university and networking hard makes you better at getting into the inner rings, but tragically it turns out that what determines your whole-career income is actually how good you are at doing your job and university education doesn’t help with that.)
You are focusing on something that was incidental to the point I was actually making. That point, to make it more explicit, is: It is extremely common for university students to become “artisans” in the sense that seems relevant here. (That is: people doing a skilled job that it is possible to do well or badly and in which it is possible to do better by trying harder.) And it is extremely common for university students to intend to become “artisans” in the same sense.
Maybe Caplan is right that in fact it turns out that university education is, on balance, not helpful to people in doing their jobs. That can hardly be relevant to Lewis and his audience, back in 1944, decades before Bryan Caplan was even born.
[EDITED to add:] Also hardly relevant to me, doing my university studies decades before Caplan wrote The case against education. And only marginally relevant even to people at university now, most of whom have not read Caplan. What matters here is whether university students are likely to become “artisans”, either in reality or in their expectations or both.
(On the meta-point: I do not think it is so obvious that Caplan has proved his case, that anyone suggesting that university education might have value can just be presumed to be wrong unless they write a full-length rebuttal of Caplan. Beware the man of one study, etc. I also remark that AIUI what Caplan looks at is not education’s effectiveness in helping people do better jobs, but education’s effectiveness in helping people get paid more. One would hope that the two are closely related, and perhaps they are, but it seems relevant that one of Lewis’s key points in the talk we are discussing is that getting paid more is often determined by things that have little to do with how good a job you do.)
I’d expect it to be significantly more applicable to the kinds of students Lewis was speaking to, than the average college student now, because college used to be more of an extreme elite endeavor, and fewer jobs used to require a nonspecific college degree. And in fact the aggregate behavior of university graduates between Lewis’s time and now caused us to live in a more credentialist society, with weaker property rights, where normal college students feel like they don’t have freedom of speech because it’s so important to be liked, and a large share of “business” is governed by the culture of Moral Mazes.
So you’re suggesting that the typical university student at a goodish UK university in 1944 would, after graduating, not be in the sort of job that involves skill and that it’s possible to do better or worse?
I am not in possession of the sort of statistics that might enable us to decide that question, but I have to say that that seems awfully improbable to me.
When Lewis gives a short list of possible post-university destinations it goes like this: ” …in whatever hospital, inn of court, diocese, school, business, or college you arrive after going down …”. So he’s thinking of doctors, lawyers, clergy, teachers, people-working-for-businesses, and universities. Obviously that second-last category is a large and varied one. Anyway: clearly medicine is a skilled profession in which one can learn and exercise greater or lesser skill. So is law. One could argue about the clergy, but I’m pretty sure Lewis felt that it was such a profession. I think it’s clear that education is such a profession, though maybe Caplan would disagree. Businesses, as I say, are many and varied, but at any rate the ones I’ve worked in have contained a lot of people doing difficult work that could be done well or badly. University education: same remarks apply as “lower” education.
Make of all that what you will. At any rate, it seems that the internal evidence of Lewis’s address suggests an audience to whom his advice is not in fact inapplicable. (So does the observation that Lewis was not an idiot.)
It is not clear to me how the allegedly-lamentable-in-consequences behaviour of university graduates between Lewis’s time and now is relevant. Are you saying that the bad state of society now proves that university graduates in 1944 did not work in jobs where one could do a difficult job well or badly? Surely not, but then what point are you making there?
I don’t understand what alternative hypothesis you’re advancing here. How can people afford to spend increasingly large amounts of time and money on schooling, which is mainly about teaching you to do a better job, if doing a better job doesn’t get you paid correspondingly more in expectation? If an alchemist’s wages aren’t sufficient to compensate for the training costs, shouldn’t we expect fewer alchemists in the next generation?
The alternative hypothesis I am advancing is that, in some (perhaps many) cases, people seek out education because they want to know certain things or because they want to be able to do certain things, rather than because they have made an estimate of the overall effect on their finances and decided that it’s positive.
For instance, my own case (not because it’s particularly important or particularly typical, but because I know more about it): I don’t remember ever seriously considering the possibility of not going to university, I don’t remember ever doing any net-financial-effect calculations, I mostly wanted to be an academic and knew academics weren’t particularly well paid, and I did the degree I did because I found the subject fascinating and thought I probably wanted to work in it after graduation.
This was quite a long time ago. I had more ability not to make financial calculations than (e.g.) the typical student in the present-day United States; the government of my country paid my fees, the institution I attended provided accommodation without extra charge, and my parents had no difficulty covering my living costs.
It may be that in the present-day US (and to a lesser extent the present-day UK, which is where I live) the cost of going to university—especially one of the pricier ones—is so high that no one other than the very rich would seriously consider going without doing a careful calculation of expected financial benefit. But it wasn’t true in the UK circa 1990, and neither was it true in the UK in 1944 when Lewis gave that address. And even now, if someone has the good fortune to be able to afford not to choose whether and where and how to go to university mostly on financial grounds, it seems to me that Caplan has not offered (nor tried to offer) very compelling evidence that universities don’t do a good job of teaching you things that might be interesting, useful, mind-expanding, etc., unless Lewis is all wrong about “inner rings”, because it could be that going to a good university and studying hard does make you better at doing your job, but being better at doing your job makes much less difference to your whole-career income than being better at getting into the inner rings.
(Or maybe going to a good university and networking hard makes you better at getting into the inner rings, but tragically it turns out that what determines your whole-career income is actually how good you are at doing your job and university education doesn’t help with that.)