Re: “believing that the great filter is more likely to lie in the future means you have to anticipate a higher probability of experiencing doom.”
Maybe—if you also believe the great filter is likely to result in THE END OF THE WORLD.
If it is merely a roadblock—similar to the many roadblocks we have seen so far—DOOM doesn’t necessarily follow—at least not for a loooong time.
If the great filter is a roadblock, or a mere possibility of DOOM, then we already know damn well there are late great filters and could spend several pages just listing them.
Re: “believing that the great filter is more likely to lie in the future means you have to anticipate a higher probability of experiencing doom.”
Maybe—if you also believe the great filter is likely to result in THE END OF THE WORLD.
If it is merely a roadblock—similar to the many roadblocks we have seen so far—DOOM doesn’t necessarily follow—at least not for a loooong time.
If the great filter is a roadblock, or a mere possibility of DOOM, then we already know damn well there are late great filters and could spend several pages just listing them.