Can’t tell to what degree we have a serious disagreement. (I wouldn’t be that surprised if I was fairly deluded about have a >10% shot at being “about as popular as Kwanzaa”, but I also was basing that on an assumption that Kwanzaa is not actually all that popular)
I don’t think we actually do have much of a disagreement. I’m just trying to point you in the direction of doing Fermi estimates of how changeable society is on any particular point. I think by most reasonable estimates, >10% is going to be a fairly delusional probability for any but the most marginal impacts, but YMMV.
Can’t tell to what degree we have a serious disagreement. (I wouldn’t be that surprised if I was fairly deluded about have a >10% shot at being “about as popular as Kwanzaa”, but I also was basing that on an assumption that Kwanzaa is not actually all that popular)
I don’t think we actually do have much of a disagreement. I’m just trying to point you in the direction of doing Fermi estimates of how changeable society is on any particular point. I think by most reasonable estimates, >10% is going to be a fairly delusional probability for any but the most marginal impacts, but YMMV.