This seems silly. Yudkowsky could just do extra talks, work extra hours, etc. right before 2029 ends if he’s immediately unable to pay Bryan Caplan back. I gather that Yudkowsky thinks theres a lumpy chance of the world ending all over the 2020s, and not a specific high chance at January 1st, 2030. Even if he did, he could still have engineered payments in trenches because Yudkowsky has human capital he can use as long as the world continues to exist.
So the bet is capped at Yudkowsky’s ability to earn extra income on the margin, to meet unforseen circumstances and whatever payment plan they can agree to, but this problem is obviously not insolvable.
This seems silly. Yudkowsky could just do extra talks, work extra hours, etc. right before 2029 ends if he’s immediately unable to pay Bryan Caplan back. I gather that Yudkowsky thinks theres a lumpy chance of the world ending all over the 2020s, and not a specific high chance at January 1st, 2030. Even if he did, he could still have engineered payments in trenches because Yudkowsky has human capital he can use as long as the world continues to exist.
So the bet is capped at Yudkowsky’s ability to earn extra income on the margin, to meet unforseen circumstances and whatever payment plan they can agree to, but this problem is obviously not insolvable.
You’re right. I have edited the post to remove the bit about tying up capital. That part was wrong.