If we change the story as you describe I guess the moral of the story would probably become “investigate thoroughly”. Obviously Bayesians are never really certain—but deliberate manipulation of one’s own map of probabilities is unwise unless there is an overwhelmingly good reason (your hypothetical would probably be one—but I believe in real life we rarely run into that species of situation).
The story itself is not the argument, but an illustration of it—it is “a calculation of the instrumentality of various options ought to include a generalised weighting of the truth (resistence to self-deception) because of the consequences of self-deception tend to be hidden and negative”. I additionally feel that this weighting is neglected when the focus in on “winning”. I can’t prove the emprical part of the first claim, because its based on general life experience, but I don’t feel its going to be challenged by any reasonable person (does anyone here think self-deception doesn’t generally lead to unseen, negative consequences?).
I don’t feel confident precribing a specific formula to quantify that weighting at this time. I’m merely suggesting the weight should be something, and be significant in most situations.
Thanks for the reply.
If we change the story as you describe I guess the moral of the story would probably become “investigate thoroughly”. Obviously Bayesians are never really certain—but deliberate manipulation of one’s own map of probabilities is unwise unless there is an overwhelmingly good reason (your hypothetical would probably be one—but I believe in real life we rarely run into that species of situation).
The story itself is not the argument, but an illustration of it—it is “a calculation of the instrumentality of various options ought to include a generalised weighting of the truth (resistence to self-deception) because of the consequences of self-deception tend to be hidden and negative”. I additionally feel that this weighting is neglected when the focus in on “winning”. I can’t prove the emprical part of the first claim, because its based on general life experience, but I don’t feel its going to be challenged by any reasonable person (does anyone here think self-deception doesn’t generally lead to unseen, negative consequences?).
I don’t feel confident precribing a specific formula to quantify that weighting at this time. I’m merely suggesting the weight should be something, and be significant in most situations.