I’m not an expert, so i might be misunderstanding, but let me try to come up with a rebuttal.
‘Obviously’ is a strong word here. I think “I am currently awake rather than asleep. So there are likely a lot of red rooms” is pretty intuitive under these rules. After all, red rooms cause wakefulness.
Here’s how i look at it: Imagine there is a city where all the hotels have 81 rooms (and exactly the same prices). Some hotels are almost full and some are almost empty. A travel agency books you a random room, distributed such that you are equally likely to be assigned any vacant room in the city. You are more likely to be assigned a room in one of the almost-empty hotels than in one of the almost-full hotels.
(The statement about existing people is more complicated.)
I’m not an expert, so i might be misunderstanding, but let me try to come up with a rebuttal.
‘Obviously’ is a strong word here. I think “I am currently awake rather than asleep. So there are likely a lot of red rooms” is pretty intuitive under these rules. After all, red rooms cause wakefulness.
Here’s how i look at it: Imagine there is a city where all the hotels have 81 rooms (and exactly the same prices). Some hotels are almost full and some are almost empty. A travel agency books you a random room, distributed such that you are equally likely to be assigned any vacant room in the city. You are more likely to be assigned a room in one of the almost-empty hotels than in one of the almost-full hotels.
(The statement about existing people is more complicated.)