I am still not sure why the Doomsday reasoning is incorrect. To get P(A | human) = P(B | human), I first need to draw some distinction between being a human observer and an AGI observer. It’s not clear to me why or how you could separate them into these categories.
When you say “half of them are wrong”, you are talking about half of humans. However, if you are unable to distinguish observers, then only 1 in 10^39 is wrong.
My thinking on this is not entirely clear, so please let me know if I am missing something.
I am still not sure why the Doomsday reasoning is incorrect. To get P(A | human) = P(B | human), I first need to draw some distinction between being a human observer and an AGI observer. It’s not clear to me why or how you could separate them into these categories.
When you say “half of them are wrong”, you are talking about half of humans. However, if you are unable to distinguish observers, then only 1 in 10^39 is wrong.
My thinking on this is not entirely clear, so please let me know if I am missing something.