I’ve been meaning for a while to be more public about my investing, in order to share ideas with others and get feedback. Ideally I’d like to write up my thinking in detail, including describing what my target portfolio would be if I was more diligent about rebalancing (or didn’t have to worry about tax planning). I haven’t done either of those things. But, in order to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good, I’ll just share very roughly what my current portfolio is.
My approximate current portfolio (note: I do not consider this to be optimal!):
40% TSLA
35% crypto—XTZ, BTC, and ETH (and small amounts of LTC, XRP, and BCH)
1% SQ (an exploratory investment—there are some indications that I’d want to bet on them, but I want to do more research. Putting in a little bit of money forces me to start paying attention.)
<1% FUV (another exploratory investment)
-5% cash
Some notes:
Once VIX comes down, I’ll want to lever up a bit. Likely by increasing the allocation to index funds (and going more short cash).
One major way this portfolio differs from the portfolio in my heart is that it has no exposure to Stripe. If it was easy to do, I would probably allocate something like 5-10% to Stripe.
I have a high risk tolerance. I think both dispositionally, and because I buy 1) the argument from Lifecycle Investing that young(ish) people should be something like 2x leveraged and, 2) the argument that some EAs have made that people who plan to donate a lot should be closer to risk neutral than they otherwise would be. (Because your donations are a small fraction of the pool going to similar causes, so the utility in money is much closer to linear than for money you spend on yourself, which is probably something like logarithmic.)
I am not very systematic. I follow my interests and go with my gut a lot. This has worked out surprisingly well. My crypto investment started with buying BTC at 25 cents in 2010, and my Tesla investment started at $35 in 2013. I’ve also invested in some startups that didn’t work out, but my highest conviction gut bets (Tesla and bitcoin) have been the best performers, and have far more than made up for the misses.
I would like to be more systematic. I think I would have done better up to now if I had been. Especially with tax planning.
Thanks for posting this. Why did you invest in those three startups in particular? Was it the market, the founders, personal connections? And was it a systematic search for startups to invest in, or more of an “opportunity-arose” situation?
These were all personal connections / opportunity-arose situations.
The closest I’ve done to a systematic search was once asking someone who’d done a bunch of angel investments if there were any he’d invested in who were looking for more money and whom he was considering investing more in. That was actually my first angel investment (Pantelligent) and it ended up not working out. (But of course that’s the median expected outcome.)
(The other two that I invested in that are not still going concerns were AgoraFund and AlphaSheets. Both of those were through personal connections as well.)
Got it. I wonder why there aren’t discussions about cryptocurrencies here on LW. Like, extensively researching the existing protocols and their characteristics and then naming which one is the best and why, and betting on it. Or even using it on the forum. I would suggest you to research these two cryptos I have cited if you are interested on updating your bets.
I’ve been meaning for a while to be more public about my investing, in order to share ideas with others and get feedback. Ideally I’d like to write up my thinking in detail, including describing what my target portfolio would be if I was more diligent about rebalancing (or didn’t have to worry about tax planning). I haven’t done either of those things. But, in order to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good, I’ll just share very roughly what my current portfolio is.
My approximate current portfolio (note: I do not consider this to be optimal!):
40% TSLA
35% crypto—XTZ, BTC, and ETH (and small amounts of LTC, XRP, and BCH)
25% startups—Kinta AI, Coase, and General Biotics
4% diversified index funds
1% SQ (an exploratory investment—there are some indications that I’d want to bet on them, but I want to do more research. Putting in a little bit of money forces me to start paying attention.)
<1% FUV (another exploratory investment)
-5% cash
Some notes:
Once VIX comes down, I’ll want to lever up a bit. Likely by increasing the allocation to index funds (and going more short cash).
One major way this portfolio differs from the portfolio in my heart is that it has no exposure to Stripe. If it was easy to do, I would probably allocate something like 5-10% to Stripe.
I have a high risk tolerance. I think both dispositionally, and because I buy 1) the argument from Lifecycle Investing that young(ish) people should be something like 2x leveraged and, 2) the argument that some EAs have made that people who plan to donate a lot should be closer to risk neutral than they otherwise would be. (Because your donations are a small fraction of the pool going to similar causes, so the utility in money is much closer to linear than for money you spend on yourself, which is probably something like logarithmic.)
I am not very systematic. I follow my interests and go with my gut a lot. This has worked out surprisingly well. My crypto investment started with buying BTC at 25 cents in 2010, and my Tesla investment started at $35 in 2013. I’ve also invested in some startups that didn’t work out, but my highest conviction gut bets (Tesla and bitcoin) have been the best performers, and have far more than made up for the misses.
I would like to be more systematic. I think I would have done better up to now if I had been. Especially with tax planning.
Good year for this portfolio. Any new tips? :P
Some that are hard to get into: Stripe, OpenAI, and SpaceX.
EDIT: Also cautiously increasing my stake in Arcimoto (FUV).
Stripe is apparently tradable on Forge. The minimum size is $1MM though. Considering trying to put a group together...
See Risk-aversion and investment (for altruists) for both a statement of the argument and some counterpoints to it (and counter-counterpoints as well).
Thanks for posting this. Why did you invest in those three startups in particular? Was it the market, the founders, personal connections? And was it a systematic search for startups to invest in, or more of an “opportunity-arose” situation?
These were all personal connections / opportunity-arose situations.
The closest I’ve done to a systematic search was once asking someone who’d done a bunch of angel investments if there were any he’d invested in who were looking for more money and whom he was considering investing more in. That was actually my first angel investment (Pantelligent) and it ended up not working out. (But of course that’s the median expected outcome.)
(The other two that I invested in that are not still going concerns were AgoraFund and AlphaSheets. Both of those were through personal connections as well.)
Why do you bet on cryptos with weak fundamentals like LTC, XRP, and BCH, and not on cryptos with stronger fundamentals like Monero and Nano?
No super strong reason. I entered those positions a while ago, and was mostly just trying to diversify, paying some attention to market cap weight.
Got it. I wonder why there aren’t discussions about cryptocurrencies here on LW. Like, extensively researching the existing protocols and their characteristics and then naming which one is the best and why, and betting on it. Or even using it on the forum. I would suggest you to research these two cryptos I have cited if you are interested on updating your bets.