A CDT agent will do this, if it can be proven that it cannot make worse decisions after the modification than if it had not modified itself. I actually tried to find literature on this a while back, but couldn’t find any, so I assigned a very low probability to the possibility that this could be proven. Seeing how you seem to be familiar with the topic, do you know of any?
I am somewhat familiar with the topic but note that I am most familiar with the work that has already moved past CDT (ie. considers CDT irrational and inferior to a reflective decision theory along the lines of TDT or UDT). Thus far nobody has got around to formally writing up a “What CDT self modifies to” paper that I’m aware of (I wish they would!). It would be interesting to see what someone coming from the assumption that CDT is sane could come up with. Again I’m unfamiliar with such attempts but in this case that is far less evidence about such things existing.
I wasn’t asking for a concrete alternative for CDT. If anything, I’m interested in a proof that such a decision theory can possibly exist. Because trying to find an alternative when you haven’t proven this seems like a task with a very low chance of success.
I wasn’t asking for a concrete alternative for CDT.
I wasn’t offering alternatives—I was looking specifically at what CDT will inevitably self modify into (which is itself not optimal—just what CDT will do). The mention of alternatives was to convey to you that what I say on the subject and what I refer to would require making inferential steps that you have indicated you aren’t likely to make.
Incidentally, proving that CDT will (given the option) modify into something else is a very different thing than proving that there is a better alternative to CDT. Either could be true without implying the other.
That is true, and if you cannot prove that such a decision theory exists, then CDT modifying itself is not the necessarily correct answer to meta-Newcomb, correct?
I am somewhat familiar with the topic but note that I am most familiar with the work that has already moved past CDT (ie. considers CDT irrational and inferior to a reflective decision theory along the lines of TDT or UDT). Thus far nobody has got around to formally writing up a “What CDT self modifies to” paper that I’m aware of (I wish they would!). It would be interesting to see what someone coming from the assumption that CDT is sane could come up with. Again I’m unfamiliar with such attempts but in this case that is far less evidence about such things existing.
I wasn’t asking for a concrete alternative for CDT. If anything, I’m interested in a proof that such a decision theory can possibly exist. Because trying to find an alternative when you haven’t proven this seems like a task with a very low chance of success.
I wasn’t offering alternatives—I was looking specifically at what CDT will inevitably self modify into (which is itself not optimal—just what CDT will do). The mention of alternatives was to convey to you that what I say on the subject and what I refer to would require making inferential steps that you have indicated you aren’t likely to make.
Incidentally, proving that CDT will (given the option) modify into something else is a very different thing than proving that there is a better alternative to CDT. Either could be true without implying the other.
That is true, and if you cannot prove that such a decision theory exists, then CDT modifying itself is not the necessarily correct answer to meta-Newcomb, correct?