The way I understand it is that ‘outside view’ is relative, and basically means ‘relying on more reference class forecasting / less gears-level modelling than whatever the current topic of discussion is relying on’. So if we’re discussing a gears-level model of how a computer chip works in the context of if we’ll ever get a 10 OOM improvement in computing power, bringing up moore’s law and general trends would be using an ‘outside view’.
If we’re talking about very broad trend extrapolation, then the inside view is already not very gears-level. So suppose someone says GWP is improving hyperbolically so we’ll hit a singularity in the next century. An outside view correction to that would be ‘well for x and y reasons we’re very unlikely a priori to be living at the hinge of history so we should lower our credence in that trend extrapolation’.
So someone bringing up broad priors or the anti-weirdness heruistic if we’re talking about extrapolating trends would be moving to a ‘more outside’ view. Someone bringing up a trend when we’re talking about a specific model would be using an ‘outside view’. In each case, you’re sort of zooming out to rely on a wider selection of (potentially less relevant) evidence than you were before.
Note that what I’m trying to do here isn’t to counter your claim that the term isn’t useful anymore but just to try and see what meaning the broad sense of the term might have, and this is the best I’ve come up with. Since what you mean by outside view shifts dependent on context, it’s probably best to use the specific thing that you mean by it in each context, but there is still a unifying theme among the different ideas.
The way I understand it is that ‘outside view’ is relative, and basically means ‘relying on more reference class forecasting / less gears-level modelling than whatever the current topic of discussion is relying on’. So if we’re discussing a gears-level model of how a computer chip works in the context of if we’ll ever get a 10 OOM improvement in computing power, bringing up moore’s law and general trends would be using an ‘outside view’.
If we’re talking about very broad trend extrapolation, then the inside view is already not very gears-level. So suppose someone says GWP is improving hyperbolically so we’ll hit a singularity in the next century. An outside view correction to that would be ‘well for x and y reasons we’re very unlikely a priori to be living at the hinge of history so we should lower our credence in that trend extrapolation’.
So someone bringing up broad priors or the anti-weirdness heruistic if we’re talking about extrapolating trends would be moving to a ‘more outside’ view. Someone bringing up a trend when we’re talking about a specific model would be using an ‘outside view’. In each case, you’re sort of zooming out to rely on a wider selection of (potentially less relevant) evidence than you were before.
Note that what I’m trying to do here isn’t to counter your claim that the term isn’t useful anymore but just to try and see what meaning the broad sense of the term might have, and this is the best I’ve come up with. Since what you mean by outside view shifts dependent on context, it’s probably best to use the specific thing that you mean by it in each context, but there is still a unifying theme among the different ideas.