Well, I’ve just sat down and done one of those, and it was really difficult. Not so much because I was pushing against established beliefs (I had strong beliefs both ways, so it was more that any movement pushed somewhere) but because the largest worry I had, “Is this a fad?”, is hard to answer specifically because I’ve recently changed to become so much more Bayesian. I used to do daft things like “giving ideas a chance”. Consequently, I can’t look to my long and undistinguished history in order to glean hints. I already don’t do the obvious wrong stuff.
So the problem has to be phrased as “what sorts of irrationality would not be obvious to a beginner Bayesian?”
That’s a real poser. Just by being one, I’m in the worst possible place to guess.
Well, I’ve just sat down and done one of those, and it was really difficult. Not so much because I was pushing against established beliefs (I had strong beliefs both ways, so it was more that any movement pushed somewhere) but because the largest worry I had, “Is this a fad?”, is hard to answer specifically because I’ve recently changed to become so much more Bayesian. I used to do daft things like “giving ideas a chance”. Consequently, I can’t look to my long and undistinguished history in order to glean hints. I already don’t do the obvious wrong stuff.
So the problem has to be phrased as “what sorts of irrationality would not be obvious to a beginner Bayesian?”
That’s a real poser. Just by being one, I’m in the worst possible place to guess.
(FWIW, the outcome was “continue, for now”.)