One relevant question is how many smart, strategic, long-term optimizers exist. (In politics, vs. in business, or in academia, etc.)
E.g., if 1 in 3 people think this way at the start of their careers, that’s very different than if 1 in 1000 do, or 1 in 15. The rarer this way of thinking is, the more powerful it needs to be in order to overcome base rates.
I was also trying to think about the numbers, it felt important but I didn’t get anywhere with it. Where to start? Should I assume a base rate of 1 in a 1,000 people being strategic? More? Less?
One relevant question is how many smart, strategic, long-term optimizers exist. (In politics, vs. in business, or in academia, etc.)
E.g., if 1 in 3 people think this way at the start of their careers, that’s very different than if 1 in 1000 do, or 1 in 15. The rarer this way of thinking is, the more powerful it needs to be in order to overcome base rates.
I was also trying to think about the numbers, it felt important but I didn’t get anywhere with it. Where to start? Should I assume a base rate of 1 in a 1,000 people being strategic? More? Less?