I’m excited to see the next post in this sequence. I think the main counterargument, as has been pointed out by Habryka, Kulveit, and others, is that the graph at the beginning is not at all representative of the downsides from poorly executed buying-time interventions. TAO note the potential for downsides, but it’s not clear how they think about the EV of buying-time interventions, given these downsides.
This post has the problem of trying to give advice to a broad audience; among readers of this post, some should be doing buying-time work, some should do alignment research, some should fill in support roles, and some should do less-direct things (e.g., building capacities so that you may be useful later, or earning to give; not a complete list of things people should be doing). I suspect most folks agree that [people trying to make AI go well] should be taking different approaches; duh, comparative advantage is a thing.
Given that people should be doing different things, attempts at community coordination should aim to be relatively specific about who should do what; I feel this post does not add useful insight on the question of who should be doing buying-time interventions. I agree with the post’s thrust that buying-time interventions is important[1] and that there should be more of it happening, but I think this contribution doesn’t do much on its own. TAO should try to build an understanding of why people with various skills should pursue particular paths. Pointing in the direction of “we think more people should be going into “buying time” interventions” is different from directing the right individual people in that direction, and broad pointing will plausibly lead to a misallocation here.
This all said, I’m excited about the rest of the sequence, which I hope will better flesh out these ideas, including discussion of who is a good fit for time-buying interventions (building on CAIS’s related thoughts, which I would link but temporarily can’t find). I think this post will fit well into a whole sequence, insofar as it makes the point that time-buying interventions are particularly impactful, and other posts can address these other key factors (what interventions, who’s a good fit, existing projects in the space, and more).
I’m excited to see the next post in this sequence. I think the main counterargument, as has been pointed out by Habryka, Kulveit, and others, is that the graph at the beginning is not at all representative of the downsides from poorly executed buying-time interventions. TAO note the potential for downsides, but it’s not clear how they think about the EV of buying-time interventions, given these downsides.
This post has the problem of trying to give advice to a broad audience; among readers of this post, some should be doing buying-time work, some should do alignment research, some should fill in support roles, and some should do less-direct things (e.g., building capacities so that you may be useful later, or earning to give; not a complete list of things people should be doing). I suspect most folks agree that [people trying to make AI go well] should be taking different approaches; duh, comparative advantage is a thing.
Given that people should be doing different things, attempts at community coordination should aim to be relatively specific about who should do what; I feel this post does not add useful insight on the question of who should be doing buying-time interventions. I agree with the post’s thrust that buying-time interventions is important[1] and that there should be more of it happening, but I think this contribution doesn’t do much on its own. TAO should try to build an understanding of why people with various skills should pursue particular paths. Pointing in the direction of “we think more people should be going into “buying time” interventions” is different from directing the right individual people in that direction, and broad pointing will plausibly lead to a misallocation here.
This all said, I’m excited about the rest of the sequence, which I hope will better flesh out these ideas, including discussion of who is a good fit for time-buying interventions (building on CAIS’s related thoughts, which I would link but temporarily can’t find). I think this post will fit well into a whole sequence, insofar as it makes the point that time-buying interventions are particularly impactful, and other posts can address these other key factors (what interventions, who’s a good fit, existing projects in the space, and more).
and the idea around buying end-time being particularly valuable is a useful contribution