I think that my decision on sets three and four is almost entirely determined by how much faith I have in the fairness of the random number generator. I’ve seen it suggested on LW before, and I think it’s a good model, that the attractiveness of “certainty” reflects disbelief in the stated odds.
In three-card monty, your chances of picking the right card are not one in three.
Depends on circumstance. If I can verify the RNG directly, pretty close to 50% plus transaction costs. If I think I have an opportunity to punish obvious defection, 100% (implying a non-stochastic outcome rule). If I have no recourse in case of defection, I would not pay anything to play regardless of stated odds.
I think that my decision on sets three and four is almost entirely determined by how much faith I have in the fairness of the random number generator. I’ve seen it suggested on LW before, and I think it’s a good model, that the attractiveness of “certainty” reflects disbelief in the stated odds.
In three-card monty, your chances of picking the right card are not one in three.
Is this really the only motivator, though? What stated percentage would you need it to say to think you’ve got a “real” 50%?
Depends on circumstance. If I can verify the RNG directly, pretty close to 50% plus transaction costs. If I think I have an opportunity to punish obvious defection, 100% (implying a non-stochastic outcome rule). If I have no recourse in case of defection, I would not pay anything to play regardless of stated odds.