Assuming all people are rational, but not superrational: Two box. Expect $1000
Actual humans: two box; my thought processes would match a few hundred (LWers) people out of the billions. Expect 50% chance of $1000000.
N of me: If I one-box, I guarantee my block one boxes. If there were around 10 million of me, I would one-box.
Reasoning for N or me: given the 50% above, if I added 1/1000th of the population as known one-boxer-iff-I-one-box, it would make it worth it ($1k is 1/1000 of $1M). This is totally approximate and I didn’t actually algebra.
Hmmm.
Assuming all people are rational, but not superrational: Two box. Expect $1000
Actual humans: two box; my thought processes would match a few hundred (LWers) people out of the billions. Expect 50% chance of $1000000.
N of me: If I one-box, I guarantee my block one boxes. If there were around 10 million of me, I would one-box.
Reasoning for N or me: given the 50% above, if I added 1/1000th of the population as known one-boxer-iff-I-one-box, it would make it worth it ($1k is 1/1000 of $1M). This is totally approximate and I didn’t actually algebra.