I doubt population size is really a good metric for estimating odds for a battle/invasion. Used to be that the rule of thumb was the attacking force needed 3 times the forces of the defender. In the case of Taiwan one might think a higher ratio would be required for many of the same reasons you suggest carriers are essentially sunk costs in a war.
I’m also not sure I agree with your assessment of interests or how long their agenda has been in place. There is that whole century of shame/humiliation its been looking to payback and allow a return to its rightful place as the apex culture. It has also been an imperial culture and polity for much, much longer than it’s been democratic or socialist/communist.
With regards to it largely playing by the LWO rules I think that is also rather questionable. It has used its position and acceptance into the UN and other international organizations well to lay the ground work for where they are today. It did so by not playing within the spirit of the rules and often not even within the letter of the rules. But that was just long experience with bureaucratic structures and using them to further imperial goals.
I doubt population size is really a good metric for estimating odds for a battle/invasion. Used to be that the rule of thumb was the attacking force needed 3 times the forces of the defender. In the case of Taiwan one might think a higher ratio would be required for many of the same reasons you suggest carriers are essentially sunk costs in a war.
I’m also not sure I agree with your assessment of interests or how long their agenda has been in place. There is that whole century of shame/humiliation its been looking to payback and allow a return to its rightful place as the apex culture. It has also been an imperial culture and polity for much, much longer than it’s been democratic or socialist/communist.
With regards to it largely playing by the LWO rules I think that is also rather questionable. It has used its position and acceptance into the UN and other international organizations well to lay the ground work for where they are today. It did so by not playing within the spirit of the rules and often not even within the letter of the rules. But that was just long experience with bureaucratic structures and using them to further imperial goals.