China’s interests have been basically unchanged since 1978. Its primary objective is to maintain internal domestic stability i.e. prevent regime change. ...
China has prospered under the [Liberal World Order]. Rather than establishing broad international coalitions, China tends to pursue its interests bilaterally. With a few exceptions (like the dispute over the South China Sea) China is content to play according to the rules of the LWO.
...
Of all the potential points of conflict, the obvious ones are Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Great, there’s no reason for the US to fight China over control of sea and land next to China. The sooner the US realizes this, the safer and more prosperous we all, and the LWO, will be.
So the whole EEZ rights that these other nations are recognized as having should just be ignored? We should just toss the entire UN bath water out?
I think giving into China on SCS and its claims that conflict with international rules it has agreed with and signed on to necessarily make a mockery of any claims to supporting a LWO or a USA commitment to any such order.
Great power war risks destruction of the LWO. The LWO can and does take a whole lot of mockery (including from the US) and keep on ticking in the most important respects: peace and continued technical progress.
Anyway the EEZ conflicts are between jurisdictions in the region, not the US. Freedom of commercial navigation will continue in the absence of military conflict. I expect the oceans to be more and more governed by states, and if it doesn’t destroy itself in unnecessary conflict, US power will benefit, as will the UK and France due to their massive head starts (far flung island territories). For example, if seasteading ever becomes viable, over the long term it’ll contribute to more governance of oceans by states. Island building is just the beginning.
Great, there’s no reason for the US to fight China over control of sea and land next to China. The sooner the US realizes this, the safer and more prosperous we all, and the LWO, will be.
China’s secondary objective is to secure resources and trade routes, even if that means breaking the LWO.
The LWO has and can bend a lot without breaking. Great power war risks actually breaking the LWO, and more.
So the whole EEZ rights that these other nations are recognized as having should just be ignored? We should just toss the entire UN bath water out?
I think giving into China on SCS and its claims that conflict with international rules it has agreed with and signed on to necessarily make a mockery of any claims to supporting a LWO or a USA commitment to any such order.
Great power war risks destruction of the LWO. The LWO can and does take a whole lot of mockery (including from the US) and keep on ticking in the most important respects: peace and continued technical progress.
Anyway the EEZ conflicts are between jurisdictions in the region, not the US. Freedom of commercial navigation will continue in the absence of military conflict. I expect the oceans to be more and more governed by states, and if it doesn’t destroy itself in unnecessary conflict, US power will benefit, as will the UK and France due to their massive head starts (far flung island territories). For example, if seasteading ever becomes viable, over the long term it’ll contribute to more governance of oceans by states. Island building is just the beginning.