The number on the US invasion of Afghanistan may explain why it was such a failure. With 10^6 soldiers instead of 10^5 they would probably have been able to really secure the country.
I think a protracted war is unlikely because I expect the US to just give up on Taiwan.
Expansionism is something that grows on you. After China invades Taiwan, I guess they may become interested in securing some form of control over say Singapore, or Vietnam. The fact that they are not expansionist now does not mean they will not be expansionist then.
I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is likely to happen way before 2050.
That depends on the amount of trouble you have administering the new expansions.
I guess they may become interested in securing some form of control over say Singapore, or Vietnam.
The US has some form of control over many states without needing to formally control their territory. China’s actions in Australia or Hollywood for that matter, indicates the like having some control but that’s very different then needing to incorporate everything.
I’m not sure the victims of, say, Pinochet really appreciate the “we are not expansionist, we are just helping overthrow your democratically elected government in order to maintain our influence on your county’s international and economic policy.” defense.
I don’t think that’s how most control goes. If you forbid our cigarette companies from selling in your country you will have to pay hundreds in millions for a case at the WTO or if you don’t don’t sell your state owned businesses you won’t get IMF loans is more the dynamic I’m pointing towards.
There’s a reason why there are currently no Chinese villians in Hollywood movies. It’s just not a smart move if you want to raise capital for another movie.
If current trends continue Australia will end up in a state where you can’t have a political career if you are openly critical of China. They don’t need to overthrow any Australian government to get what they want.
A few selected thoughts :
The number on the US invasion of Afghanistan may explain why it was such a failure. With 10^6 soldiers instead of 10^5 they would probably have been able to really secure the country.
I think a protracted war is unlikely because I expect the US to just give up on Taiwan.
Expansionism is something that grows on you. After China invades Taiwan, I guess they may become interested in securing some form of control over say Singapore, or Vietnam. The fact that they are not expansionist now does not mean they will not be expansionist then.
I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is likely to happen way before 2050.
That depends on the amount of trouble you have administering the new expansions.
I guess they may become interested in securing some form of control over say Singapore, or Vietnam.
The US has some form of control over many states without needing to formally control their territory. China’s actions in Australia or Hollywood for that matter, indicates the like having some control but that’s very different then needing to incorporate everything.
I’m not sure the victims of, say, Pinochet really appreciate the “we are not expansionist, we are just helping overthrow your democratically elected government in order to maintain our influence on your county’s international and economic policy.” defense.
I don’t think that’s how most control goes. If you forbid our cigarette companies from selling in your country you will have to pay hundreds in millions for a case at the WTO or if you don’t don’t sell your state owned businesses you won’t get IMF loans is more the dynamic I’m pointing towards.
There’s a reason why there are currently no Chinese villians in Hollywood movies. It’s just not a smart move if you want to raise capital for another movie.
If current trends continue Australia will end up in a state where you can’t have a political career if you are openly critical of China. They don’t need to overthrow any Australian government to get what they want.