Hm, I can’t intuitively model a situation where future-oriented thinking would undermine people’s ability to change something. For example, if the mechanism of how to change something is unknown, then future-oriented thinking would lead to them taking steps to learn about how to change the situation, and then implementing this change. Can you give me a couple of examples where future-oriented thinking wouldn’t work?
In general, I am in favour of long term thinking. I think we need more of it. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the same thing as future-oriented thinking.
Here are a couple of examples where I think future-oriented thinking can be problemmatic.
Example 1
Let’s say you are diagnosed with a chronic illness, or terminal disease. There is no known cure. Either thousands of researchers are already working on the problem and haven’t solved it, or it is little known and not enough research is being done. Either way, it is unlikely you will see a cure in your lifetime. You have other things that you want to do with your remaining days than become a medical researcher. Even if you became a medical researcher, you probably wouldn’t find the answer in enough time to save yourself.
In this situation, I’m not saying don’t get your affairs in order, or do the things to make a better future, but is it really helpful to focus on thinking about how awful it will be once your condition degenerates, or how nice it would be to have a cure? If the change you want is “Cure this disease” and there’s no known way to do that, it may be better to focus on enjoying the present. Telling someone to take steps to learn how to change the situation then implement the change sounds glib and unfeasible in this context.
I’m not saying that there’s absolutely nothing that people can do when faced with problems this difficult. Yes, people can fundraise for medical research, or take other actions to attempt to make things better for other people who face a similar situation in the future, but it’s still not the same thing as “take these steps and it will fix your problem”.
Example 2
Someone is suicidal, or is otherwise projecting their present misery into the future. When a person is feeling miserable or overwhelmed by pain, they often imagine that the future will be just as awful and miserable as the present. People tend to project the present into the future, it’s a well-known cognitive bias. In a situation like that, sometimes the best thing a person can do is to recognize that their vision of the future is distorted at the moment, and decide not to make any major decisions based on that distorted vision.
When talking to someone who is suicidal, instead of focusing on their thoughts of the future, it can be helpful say to them something like “What is something you can do right now that could make you feel a little better?”
These examples are not theoretical to me. They have happened to people I love.
I can think of two, but I also think the number of people who don’t use long-term thinking and should far outweighs the number of people who do and shouldn’t, so I still think that teaching that skill is a great idea.
If someone doesn’t know the amount of time or effort to complete a goal, they could end up very unhappily pouring effort into a sunk-cost situation because they are imagining a long-term (but not guaranteed) future where that goal is achieved. In this situation, present-oriented thinking would be more useful.
Future (or past) oriented thinking can be a form of rumination, often seen in depression. In this situation, someone imagines every possible future, over and over, and extremely pessimistically, which leads to a sense of powerlessness. Present oriented thinking is EXTREMELY useful to combat rumination, which is why mindfulness based depression interventions have the same success rate as actual drugs.
Nevertheless, this is promoting a more goal-oriented long-term thinking exercise that doesn’t really run on the same circuits as rumination. Case 1 could still be a pitfall, but promoting long-term thinking will probably help far more people than it hurts.
I can see your point about Case 1, it depends on how the concept of long-term thinking is defined. A long-term approach to winning would evaluate the probabilistic estimate of a situation being a sunk-cost scenario, and factor that into long-term oriented goals. However, there can be some mistakes made with long-term oriented thinking in that context, so it’s a complex one to get exactly right. Still, I think the overall point we agree on, namely that promoting long-term thinking will probably help far more people than it hurts.
Hm, I can’t intuitively model a situation where future-oriented thinking would undermine people’s ability to change something. For example, if the mechanism of how to change something is unknown, then future-oriented thinking would lead to them taking steps to learn about how to change the situation, and then implementing this change. Can you give me a couple of examples where future-oriented thinking wouldn’t work?
In general, I am in favour of long term thinking. I think we need more of it. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the same thing as future-oriented thinking.
Here are a couple of examples where I think future-oriented thinking can be problemmatic.
Example 1
Let’s say you are diagnosed with a chronic illness, or terminal disease. There is no known cure. Either thousands of researchers are already working on the problem and haven’t solved it, or it is little known and not enough research is being done. Either way, it is unlikely you will see a cure in your lifetime. You have other things that you want to do with your remaining days than become a medical researcher. Even if you became a medical researcher, you probably wouldn’t find the answer in enough time to save yourself.
In this situation, I’m not saying don’t get your affairs in order, or do the things to make a better future, but is it really helpful to focus on thinking about how awful it will be once your condition degenerates, or how nice it would be to have a cure? If the change you want is “Cure this disease” and there’s no known way to do that, it may be better to focus on enjoying the present. Telling someone to take steps to learn how to change the situation then implement the change sounds glib and unfeasible in this context.
I’m not saying that there’s absolutely nothing that people can do when faced with problems this difficult. Yes, people can fundraise for medical research, or take other actions to attempt to make things better for other people who face a similar situation in the future, but it’s still not the same thing as “take these steps and it will fix your problem”.
Example 2
Someone is suicidal, or is otherwise projecting their present misery into the future. When a person is feeling miserable or overwhelmed by pain, they often imagine that the future will be just as awful and miserable as the present. People tend to project the present into the future, it’s a well-known cognitive bias. In a situation like that, sometimes the best thing a person can do is to recognize that their vision of the future is distorted at the moment, and decide not to make any major decisions based on that distorted vision.
When talking to someone who is suicidal, instead of focusing on their thoughts of the future, it can be helpful say to them something like “What is something you can do right now that could make you feel a little better?”
These examples are not theoretical to me. They have happened to people I love.
I can think of two, but I also think the number of people who don’t use long-term thinking and should far outweighs the number of people who do and shouldn’t, so I still think that teaching that skill is a great idea.
If someone doesn’t know the amount of time or effort to complete a goal, they could end up very unhappily pouring effort into a sunk-cost situation because they are imagining a long-term (but not guaranteed) future where that goal is achieved. In this situation, present-oriented thinking would be more useful.
Future (or past) oriented thinking can be a form of rumination, often seen in depression. In this situation, someone imagines every possible future, over and over, and extremely pessimistically, which leads to a sense of powerlessness. Present oriented thinking is EXTREMELY useful to combat rumination, which is why mindfulness based depression interventions have the same success rate as actual drugs.
Nevertheless, this is promoting a more goal-oriented long-term thinking exercise that doesn’t really run on the same circuits as rumination. Case 1 could still be a pitfall, but promoting long-term thinking will probably help far more people than it hurts.
I can see your point about Case 1, it depends on how the concept of long-term thinking is defined. A long-term approach to winning would evaluate the probabilistic estimate of a situation being a sunk-cost scenario, and factor that into long-term oriented goals. However, there can be some mistakes made with long-term oriented thinking in that context, so it’s a complex one to get exactly right. Still, I think the overall point we agree on, namely that promoting long-term thinking will probably help far more people than it hurts.