We modify the game to make sure that the pay-off for successful expanding exceeds all the hiding pay-offs put together, and we also allow the big player, after the fact, to share their expanding pay-out if they want to.
Clearly, not sharing produces a higher pay-off than sharing, so the big-player will not do this. Negotiating in advance doesn’t work, as it requires revealing yourself, so once you’ve done that you’ve made your move and its no longer “in advance”.
If a civilisations utility is linear in its size, then it is always wise for it to expand. If it is risk-averse, which seems plausible, (most of us would not accept a plan which had a 50% chance of colonising Mars and a 50% chance of wiping out humanity), then it may still be wise to hide. If all civilisations are risk averse, hiding is a Nash equilibrium.
The total payout must be higher because in the hiding scenario a lot of negentropy is wasted into nowhere, in the natural lifecycle of stars and the like. The universe is a pie of a fixed size, but one that gradually rots away you take to long deciding who gets to eat it.
And it might be the case that nobody in fact chose to share, but due to game theory it still matters that they had the option.
Also, things like TDT allow for coordination even while hiding, and in fact seems to be one of the assumptions behind this thing in the first place.
The total payout must be higher because in the hiding scenario a lot of negentropy is wasted into nowhere, in the natural lifecycle of stars and the like. The universe is a pie of a fixed size, but one that gradually rots away you take to long deciding who gets to eat it.
I wasn’t disputing this.
And it might be the case that nobody in fact chose to share, but due to game theory it still matters that they had the option.
Game theory is not magic. If there is an option that nobody intends to take, and everyone knows that no-one intends to take it, and everyone knows that, etc, then this option has no effect on the game.
Also, things like TDT allow for coordination even while hiding, and in fact seems to be one of the assumptions behind this thing in the first place.
This is more promising, but I would be a lot more convinced to see the logic actually worked through rather than just using “TDT, therefore everyone is nice” as a magic wand.
I fail to see that this carries.
We modify the game to make sure that the pay-off for successful expanding exceeds all the hiding pay-offs put together, and we also allow the big player, after the fact, to share their expanding pay-out if they want to.
Clearly, not sharing produces a higher pay-off than sharing, so the big-player will not do this. Negotiating in advance doesn’t work, as it requires revealing yourself, so once you’ve done that you’ve made your move and its no longer “in advance”.
If a civilisations utility is linear in its size, then it is always wise for it to expand. If it is risk-averse, which seems plausible, (most of us would not accept a plan which had a 50% chance of colonising Mars and a 50% chance of wiping out humanity), then it may still be wise to hide. If all civilisations are risk averse, hiding is a Nash equilibrium.
The total payout must be higher because in the hiding scenario a lot of negentropy is wasted into nowhere, in the natural lifecycle of stars and the like. The universe is a pie of a fixed size, but one that gradually rots away you take to long deciding who gets to eat it.
And it might be the case that nobody in fact chose to share, but due to game theory it still matters that they had the option.
Also, things like TDT allow for coordination even while hiding, and in fact seems to be one of the assumptions behind this thing in the first place.
I wasn’t disputing this.
Game theory is not magic. If there is an option that nobody intends to take, and everyone knows that no-one intends to take it, and everyone knows that, etc, then this option has no effect on the game.
This is more promising, but I would be a lot more convinced to see the logic actually worked through rather than just using “TDT, therefore everyone is nice” as a magic wand.