Isn’t counterfactual mugging (including logical variant) just a prediction “would you bet your money on this question”? Betting itself requires updatelessness—if you don’t pay predictably after losing bet, nobody will propose bet to you.
Causal commitment is similar in some ways to counterfactual/updateless decisions. But it’s not actually the same from a theory standpoint.
Betting requires commitment, but it’s part of a causal decision process (decide to bet, communicate commitment, observe outcome, pay). In some models, the payment is a separate decision, with breaking of commitment only being an added cost to the ‘reneg’ option.
Isn’t counterfactual mugging (including logical variant) just a prediction “would you bet your money on this question”? Betting itself requires updatelessness—if you don’t pay predictably after losing bet, nobody will propose bet to you.
Causal commitment is similar in some ways to counterfactual/updateless decisions. But it’s not actually the same from a theory standpoint.
Betting requires commitment, but it’s part of a causal decision process (decide to bet, communicate commitment, observe outcome, pay). In some models, the payment is a separate decision, with breaking of commitment only being an added cost to the ‘reneg’ option.