Yeah, as I said to jsalvatier, it may well be that my estimate was too confident, and of course you’re quite right that I should have explicitly used conditional probabilities. We’re still dealing with someone who we can label a crackpot with only a trivial chance of being wrong.
Yeah, as I said to jsalvatier, it may well be that my estimate was too confident, and of course you’re quite right that I should have explicitly used conditional probabilities. We’re still dealing with someone who we can label a crackpot with only a trivial chance of being wrong.