My view has been that the autocorrelation drops to ~0 after a couple days (assuming people aren’t doing really dumb things, like going out with fevers and aches and new loss of taste). So seeing one person twice a few days apart is pretty much twice as bad as seeing them once, but seeing them twice within 24 hours, or once for twice as long duration, is less than twice as bad.
I hate it when people say “Whatever, I can be with Person X, I’m already exposed to them, I saw them last week.” Drives me nuts! The other one I hate is when someone said to me “Don’t worry! I got a negative COVID-19 test just last week!”
This is a great point: it looks like peak infectiousness is quite short-lived (~2d?), so even if someone does have a contacts model they should be counting person A this week and person A last week as separate contacts.
I was thinking “peak infectiousness without being obviously symptomatic” is typically quite short-lived. It might be that obviously-sick people are infectious for weeks; not sure.
My view has been that the autocorrelation drops to ~0 after a couple days (assuming people aren’t doing really dumb things, like going out with fevers and aches and new loss of taste). So seeing one person twice a few days apart is pretty much twice as bad as seeing them once, but seeing them twice within 24 hours, or once for twice as long duration, is less than twice as bad.
I hate it when people say “Whatever, I can be with Person X, I’m already exposed to them, I saw them last week.” Drives me nuts! The other one I hate is when someone said to me “Don’t worry! I got a negative COVID-19 test just last week!”
This is a great point: it looks like peak infectiousness is quite short-lived (~2d?), so even if someone does have a contacts model they should be counting person A this week and person A last week as separate contacts.
I was thinking “peak infectiousness without being obviously symptomatic” is typically quite short-lived. It might be that obviously-sick people are infectious for weeks; not sure.