Yeah, I was also confused what disagreement Sarah was pointing to, but I thought maybe she was arguing that there was in fact a fire alarm, as she currently has models of AI development that say it’s very far away without a conceptual breakthrough i.e. that conceptual breakthrough would be a fire alarm.
But this seems false, given that I’ve not heard many others state this fire alarm in particular (with all the details regarding “performance improvement that’s linear in processing power and hence exponential in time” etc). Nonetheless I’d be happy to find out that there sort of is such a consensus.
Yeah, I was also confused what disagreement Sarah was pointing to, but I thought maybe she was arguing that there was in fact a fire alarm, as she currently has models of AI development that say it’s very far away without a conceptual breakthrough i.e. that conceptual breakthrough would be a fire alarm.
But this seems false, given that I’ve not heard many others state this fire alarm in particular (with all the details regarding “performance improvement that’s linear in processing power and hence exponential in time” etc). Nonetheless I’d be happy to find out that there sort of is such a consensus.