Scott’s understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In general, survey details can be found at https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/)
Scott’s understanding of the survey is correct. They were asked about four occupations (with three probability-by-year, or year-reaching-probability numbers for each), then for an occupation that they thought would be fully automated especially late, and the timing of that, then all occupations. (In general, survey details can be found at https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/)