The fact that your senses are reliable may “presume induction”, just as it may also presume that you are not being deceived by Descartes’ evil demon. But when you say “that grass is green,” you don’t consider that the only reason you know it isn’t red is because there isn’t any demon… instead you don’t think of Descartes’ demon at all, and likewise you don’t think of induction at all. In any case, in whatever way “induction” might be involved in your senses, my article doesn’t intend to consider this, but induction considered just as a way of reasoning.
My point is that a year ago, you could have had a 90% probability estimate that the world would look like TV static, and a 10% probability of something else. But the 10% chance has been confirmed, not the 90% chance. Or if you say that there was no basis for the 10% chance, then maybe you thought there was a 100% chance of static. But in this case you collapse in Bayesian explosion, since the static didn’t happen.
In other words, “not assuming induction” does not mean being 100% certain that there will not be a future or that it will not be like the past; it means being uncertain, which means having degrees of belief.
The fact that your senses are reliable may “presume induction”, just as it may also presume that you are not being deceived by Descartes’ evil demon. But when you say “that grass is green,” you don’t consider that the only reason you know it isn’t red is because there isn’t any demon… instead you don’t think of Descartes’ demon at all, and likewise you don’t think of induction at all. In any case, in whatever way “induction” might be involved in your senses, my article doesn’t intend to consider this, but induction considered just as a way of reasoning.
My point is that a year ago, you could have had a 90% probability estimate that the world would look like TV static, and a 10% probability of something else. But the 10% chance has been confirmed, not the 90% chance. Or if you say that there was no basis for the 10% chance, then maybe you thought there was a 100% chance of static. But in this case you collapse in Bayesian explosion, since the static didn’t happen.
In other words, “not assuming induction” does not mean being 100% certain that there will not be a future or that it will not be like the past; it means being uncertain, which means having degrees of belief.