Decision 5. Which of the following options do you prefer (choose one)?
A. A sure gain of $240
B. 25% chance to gain $1,000 and 75% chance to gain nothing
This is mathematically (though not necessarily psychologically) equivalent to being given $240 for free and then being offered a bet that wins $760 with 25% chance and loses $240 with 75% chance. Let’s leave the former aside. As for the latter, in many circumstances I would turn it down (even if I had several tens of thousand dollars to begin with) because I would take the other party’s willingness to offer me that bet as evidence that there’s something that they know and I don’t.
This is mathematically (though not necessarily psychologically) equivalent to being given $240 for free and then being offered a bet that wins $760 with 25% chance and loses $240 with 75% chance. Let’s leave the former aside. As for the latter, in many circumstances I would turn it down (even if I had several tens of thousand dollars to begin with) because I would take the other party’s willingness to offer me that bet as evidence that there’s something that they know and I don’t.