On the contrary, it is my intention to illustrate that assertions of instances that have not been experienced (with respect to their assertion at t1) can be justified in the future in which they are observed (with respect to their observation at t2).
Sorry, I may not be following this right. I had thought the point of the skeptical argument was that you can’t justify a prediction about the future until it happens. Induction is about predicting things that haven’t happened yet. You don’t seem to be denying the skeptical argument here, if we still need to wait for the prediction to resolve before it can be justified.
I agree that you can’t justify a prediction until it happens, but I’m urging us to consider what it actually means for a prediction to happen. This can become nuanced when you consider predictions that are statements which require multiple observations to be justified.
If I predict that a box (that we all know contains 10 swans) contains 10 white swans (My prediction is ‘There are ten white swans in this box.‘). When does that prediction actually ‘happen’? When does it become ‘justified’?
I think we all agree that after we’ve witnessed the 10th white swan, my assertion is justified. But am I justified at all to believe I am more likely to be correct after I’ve only witnessed 8 or 9 white swans?
Sorry, I may not be following this right. I had thought the point of the skeptical argument was that you can’t justify a prediction about the future until it happens. Induction is about predicting things that haven’t happened yet. You don’t seem to be denying the skeptical argument here, if we still need to wait for the prediction to resolve before it can be justified.
This is a good question.
I agree that you can’t justify a prediction until it happens, but I’m urging us to consider what it actually means for a prediction to happen. This can become nuanced when you consider predictions that are statements which require multiple observations to be justified.
If I predict that a box (that we all know contains 10 swans) contains 10 white swans (My prediction is ‘There are ten white swans in this box.‘). When does that prediction actually ‘happen’? When does it become ‘justified’?
I think we all agree that after we’ve witnessed the 10th white swan, my assertion is justified. But am I justified at all to believe I am more likely to be correct after I’ve only witnessed 8 or 9 white swans?
This is controversial.