I can’t say it’s impossible, but you would have to constantly go back and forth whenever you got new information, while hiding from yourself that you were doing so, and at a certain point it becomes psychologically easier to work hard despite a lack of guaranteed success.
I’m not sure if I’m interpreting what you mean by going back and forth correctly, but I think this will clarify.
If you’re going to self-deceive on eg. the former question of what the baseline likelihood of getting a job is, there is a large downside that you won’t be able to update (well) on new information. Eg. in the scenario where new information arises showing that you should actually quit the grad program, you wouldn’t be able to update on it and would end up making the wrong choice. So it’d only be appropriate to self-deceive in limited situations. Eg. if you’re highly, highly confident that the baseline likelihood of getting a job is large enough that you feel comfortable moving forward with the decision to continue with the program.
As to the question of how psychologically easy it is to self-deceive and successfully compartmentalize new information, I agree that it seems difficult, but I’m not sure. Perhaps it depends on your personality.
I can’t say it’s impossible, but you would have to constantly go back and forth whenever you got new information, while hiding from yourself that you were doing so, and at a certain point it becomes psychologically easier to work hard despite a lack of guaranteed success.
I’m not sure if I’m interpreting what you mean by going back and forth correctly, but I think this will clarify.
If you’re going to self-deceive on eg. the former question of what the baseline likelihood of getting a job is, there is a large downside that you won’t be able to update (well) on new information. Eg. in the scenario where new information arises showing that you should actually quit the grad program, you wouldn’t be able to update on it and would end up making the wrong choice. So it’d only be appropriate to self-deceive in limited situations. Eg. if you’re highly, highly confident that the baseline likelihood of getting a job is large enough that you feel comfortable moving forward with the decision to continue with the program.
As to the question of how psychologically easy it is to self-deceive and successfully compartmentalize new information, I agree that it seems difficult, but I’m not sure. Perhaps it depends on your personality.
In my experience having different parts of oneself believe different things is not good for motivation.
I agree in general, but I can imagine exceptions to that rule.