Does the same reasoning not tell you that nobody is ever surprised by their death? I mean, I know I will die on some day, but if I have a fatal heart attack right now I’d certainly be surprised.
Sure, you would be surprised that you were about to die now.
But would you also be surprised that your life didn’t end up being eternal? No, because you know that you will die someday.
But what’s the significance of this distinction for this problem? Well, I don’t understand how the prisoner could think anything other than, “I guess that I’m going to end up dead one of these days around noon (monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, or friday).” It’s not like he has any reason to think that it would be more likely to happen one of the days rather than another. But, in your example, you do have a reason for that (dying now would be less likely than dying later).
But, wait, isn’t that the whole issue in contention (whether he has any reason to think that it would be more likely to happen one of the days rather than another)? Yeah, so let me get back to that.
Let’s say that the hangman shows up on the first day at noon (monday). Would the prisoner be “surprised” that it was monday rather than one of the other days? Why would he? He wouldn’t have any information besides that it would be on one of those days. Or let’s say that the hangman shows up on the second day at noon (tuesday). Would the prisoner be “surprised” that it was tuesday instead of one of the other days? I mean, why would he? He wouldn’t have any knowledge except that it would be on one of the next 3 days.
(blink?)
Does the same reasoning not tell you that nobody is ever surprised by their death? I mean, I know I will die on some day, but if I have a fatal heart attack right now I’d certainly be surprised.
Sure, you would be surprised that you were about to die now.
But would you also be surprised that your life didn’t end up being eternal? No, because you know that you will die someday.
But what’s the significance of this distinction for this problem? Well, I don’t understand how the prisoner could think anything other than, “I guess that I’m going to end up dead one of these days around noon (monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, or friday).” It’s not like he has any reason to think that it would be more likely to happen one of the days rather than another. But, in your example, you do have a reason for that (dying now would be less likely than dying later).
But, wait, isn’t that the whole issue in contention (whether he has any reason to think that it would be more likely to happen one of the days rather than another)? Yeah, so let me get back to that.
Let’s say that the hangman shows up on the first day at noon (monday). Would the prisoner be “surprised” that it was monday rather than one of the other days? Why would he? He wouldn’t have any information besides that it would be on one of those days. Or let’s say that the hangman shows up on the second day at noon (tuesday). Would the prisoner be “surprised” that it was tuesday instead of one of the other days? I mean, why would he? He wouldn’t have any knowledge except that it would be on one of the next 3 days.
I’m completely confused by this “paradox”.
Maybe you could help me out?