far too enormous for its value to the world, in my opinion
The paradox actually has practical implications. It shows a general mechanism by which you can “surprise” someone despite a predictable outcome. It goes like this:
1) You tell someone they will be “surprised” by an upcoming event (e.g., what gift you will buy them). 2) They start to suspect it will be one of a number of unusual outcomes. 3) The event actually has its regular, boring, predictable outcome. 4) But the other person is still surprised, since they did not expect the boring outcome (when before your statement, they did)!
I know of a major case where this reasoning was applied: on one season of the TV show The Apprentice. (The show where people try to get a job with Donald Trump and one person is eliminated from consideration [“fired”] each week.) During the second episode/competition, one contestant walked out due to frustration, and she didn’t come back until evaluation time.
Then, in ads for the next episode, they said, “Next time, on The Apprentice, one candidate will quit the competition—and you’ll never guess who it is!”
This, of course, prompted speculation that someone other than the last episode’s quitter would be the one to quit … but no, it was the same woman who left, this time permanently, rather than being fired. Well, it was certainly a suprise by that point!
The paradox actually has practical implications. It shows a general mechanism by which you can “surprise” someone despite a predictable outcome. It goes like this:
1) You tell someone they will be “surprised” by an upcoming event (e.g., what gift you will buy them).
2) They start to suspect it will be one of a number of unusual outcomes.
3) The event actually has its regular, boring, predictable outcome.
4) But the other person is still surprised, since they did not expect the boring outcome (when before your statement, they did)!
I know of a major case where this reasoning was applied: on one season of the TV show The Apprentice. (The show where people try to get a job with Donald Trump and one person is eliminated from consideration [“fired”] each week.) During the second episode/competition, one contestant walked out due to frustration, and she didn’t come back until evaluation time.
Then, in ads for the next episode, they said, “Next time, on The Apprentice, one candidate will quit the competition—and you’ll never guess who it is!”
This, of course, prompted speculation that someone other than the last episode’s quitter would be the one to quit … but no, it was the same woman who left, this time permanently, rather than being fired. Well, it was certainly a suprise by that point!