This is usually correct, but here it was a mistake. (I now think that superforecasting is materially worse than I hoped it would be at noticing rare events early.)
This seems to be an interesting point. If you do believe that relying on GJP forecasters was a mistake, what’s the problematic heuristic? And how can you tell in future whether to trust them?
This seems to be an interesting point. If you do believe that relying on GJP forecasters was a mistake, what’s the problematic heuristic? And how can you tell in future whether to trust them?
See the back-and-forth with John Wentsworth in the comments earlier—https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B7sHnk8P8EXmpfyCZ/a-personal-interim-covid-19-postmortem?commentId=ntGR3rpnSW6yKRoAP