Another long-term forecast evaluation study which I don’t think was mentioned (but might have simply missed): “Long-term forecasts of military technologies for a 20–30 year horizon: An empirical assessment of accuracy” ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162518304438?via%3Dihub ).
Forecast evaluation is often a messy endeavor, as I learned trying to do research on forecasting for S&T last summer (which is what led me to that article).
This is included! It’s linked from the second-to-last paragraph.
Another long-term forecast evaluation study which I don’t think was mentioned (but might have simply missed): “Long-term forecasts of military technologies for a 20–30 year horizon: An empirical assessment of accuracy” ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162518304438?via%3Dihub ).
Forecast evaluation is often a messy endeavor, as I learned trying to do research on forecasting for S&T last summer (which is what led me to that article).
This is included! It’s linked from the second-to-last paragraph.