? OK. He made a prediction, based on his beliefs about physicists. His prediction proved incorrect. He ought to therefore update his beliefs about physicists.
Presumably you thought this an interesting question, or you wouldn’t have posted this. Would you mind kicking off the discussion by explaining why?
I don’t find it particularly interesting but thought other people might.
much later edit (revisiting after years):
In fact I literally posted this because someone told me lesswrong was quite tribalistic and status oriented,so they didn’t want to post this thing they’d found, and i didn’t believe it. I had the impression that if it was posted no one would blink an eye, and people would be straightforwardly pleased to have something self-critical (where “self” here is lesswrong) to analyse, so I said I’d post it myself. That was literally the whole of my interest in it.
Well, boy was I wrong about that. Glad I “naively” posted it and found out.
?
OK.
He made a prediction, based on his beliefs about physicists.
His prediction proved incorrect.
He ought to therefore update his beliefs about physicists.
Presumably you thought this an interesting question, or you wouldn’t have posted this.
Would you mind kicking off the discussion by explaining why?
He already did.
I don’t find it particularly interesting but thought other people might.
much later edit (revisiting after years):
In fact I literally posted this because someone told me lesswrong was quite tribalistic and status oriented,so they didn’t want to post this thing they’d found, and i didn’t believe it. I had the impression that if it was posted no one would blink an eye, and people would be straightforwardly pleased to have something self-critical (where “self” here is lesswrong) to analyse, so I said I’d post it myself. That was literally the whole of my interest in it.
Well, boy was I wrong about that. Glad I “naively” posted it and found out.